Working Papers

Individuals with different identity-relevant beliefs often make divergent decisions even when presented with identical objective facts. This paper advances the theoretical understanding of motivated reasoning by developing a formal model that contrasts motivated information acquisition with a rational framework. We first explore how different types of decision makers—self- and unaware of their directional motives as well as information-sensitive motivated reasoners—make information acquisition choices based on their beliefs. Subsequently, we integrate the concept of separate decision utility to reevaluate our results in the context of actions. Our paper contributes to the theoretical literature on motivated reasoning and information acquisition, and connects to propaganda.

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This review essay aims to address several questions raised by the impact of propaganda in modern autocracies. It also examines the distinctions between this form of propaganda and the one traditionally associated with classical dictatorships, as well as its correlation with repression and protests in present-day autocracies. To achieve this, the essay will conduct an in-depth analysis of recent research papers and books that explore the fundamentals of propaganda and its manifestations in contemporary autocratic regimes. The objectives of this review are threefold. First, to provide a synopsis of the cutting-edge knowledge on propaganda as presented in the literature. Second, to offer a critical analysis that integrates recent literature from political science and economics to yield a more comprehensive assessment. Third, to identify the gaps in our current comprehension of propaganda in modern autocracies.

A remarkable state of the current literature on motivated reasoning is the idea that, although humans update their beliefs in a manner that deviates significantly from rational Bayesian reasoning, this divergence does not necessarily translate into corresponding actions. This paper is the first to explore how distorted beliefs can influence individuals’ effort provision in non-zero-sum games. Through laboratory experiments, we aim to document how subjects – Bayesian updaters and Motivated reasoners – update their beliefs and make commitments to exert effort in the context of identity-relevant tasks.

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