Working Papers

2026

1. 

   [Economics]

   Expected Accuracy as a Measure of Subjective Complexity

   Egor Bronnikov, and Elias Tsakas

   2026

   Abstract       PDF      

   We introduce uniform expected accuracy as a proxy for subjective complexity which is robust with respect to the underlying reward for solving the task correctly. The idea is that task A is classified as subjectively more complex than task B if the probability of correctly solving A is smaller than the probability of correctly solving B for any reward. We provide a full characterization of the incomplete order over the set of tasks that this criterion induces. This characterization implies that task A will be classified as subjectively more complex than task B if and only if A is both more difficult and much less known than B. This insight is consistent with the general idea within economics that complexity has both an objective and a subjective part. It is also aligned with the literature in psychology and information science which—unlike economics—have identified prior uncertainty as a key dimension of complexity. Then, using a lab experiment, where we can exogenously control both difficulty and uncertainty, we corroborate our theoretical predictions. Thus, the recently surging use of expected accuracy in economics as a proxy for subjective complexity is well warranted, as long as expected accuracy is elicited for multiple different rewards using the strategy method.

2. 

   [Political Science]

   Breaking Through the Information Bubble: How Surprise Shapes Belief Updating Across Media Sources

   Egor Bronnikov, Elias Tsakas, Alexander Vostroknutov, and Kaj Thomsson

   2026

   Abstract       PDF      

   Increasing political polarization in the United States has raised the question of whether meaningful belief updating across partisan lines is systematically constrained. While partisan-motivated reasoning provides one explanation, we examine a complementary driver of belief updating—information-theoretic \textitsurprise. In two experiments conducted shortly before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, participants first reported their prior beliefs about the election outcome, were then exposed to identical political forecasts within each study with the attributed media source randomly assigned to \textitThe New York Times or \textitFox News, and subsequently reported their posterior beliefs. We find that belief updating remains strongly anchored in prior beliefs, with limited direct media source effects, and is strongly shaped by the extent to which signals deviate from individuals’ baseline beliefs, including when attributed to out-group sources. These findings suggest that expectation-violating information may facilitate belief updating, pointing to new avenues for policy interventions in polarized societies.

2025

1. 

   [Political Sciences]

   (Politically) Motivated Information Acquisition: A Minimal Formal Framework

   Egor Bronnikov

   2025

   Abstract       PDF      

   Individuals with different identity-relevant beliefs often make divergent decisions even when presented with identical objective facts. This paper advances the theoretical understanding of motivated reasoning by developing a formal model that contrasts motivated information acquisition with a rational framework. We first explore how different types of decision makers—self- and unaware of their directional motives as well as information-sensitive motivated reasoners—make information acquisition choices based on their beliefs. Subsequently, we integrate the concept of separate decision utility to reevaluate our results in the context of actions. Our paper contributes to the theoretical literature on motivated reasoning and information acquisition, and connects to propaganda.

2025

1. 

   [Social Sciences]

   Dissernet: Overcoming Scientific Misconduct in Post-Soviet Academia

   Egor Bronnikov, and Andrey Rostovtsev

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA.

2. 

   [Economics]

   Beyond (Distorted) Posteriors: How Beliefs Spill Over into Action

   Egor Bronnikov

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA

3. 

   [Political Science]

   Democracy’s Chance: The Shaping of Public Opinion Through Transitional Justice

   Egor Bronnikov, and Monika Nalepa

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA.

4. 

   [Economics]

   (De)Motivating Sentiments: The Effects of Induced Emotions on Asymmetric Belief Updating

   Egor Bronnikov, and Michalis Drouvelis

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA.

5. 

   [Economics]

   The Vaguer–The Clearer: How Interpretability Shapes (Errors in) Belief Updating

   Egor Bronnikov, and Sebastian J. Goerg

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA.

6. 

   [Economics]

   Does the Bell Still Toll? How Civil War Narratives Shape Current Political Preferences in Spain

   Egor Bronnikov, and Cristina Figueroa

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA.

7. 

   [Economics]

   Wartime Preferences: The Effect of Violence Exposure on Time and Risk Attitudes

   Egor Bronnikov, and Hannes Rusch

   2025

   Abstract

   TBA.